Are betting returns a useful measure of accuracy in (sports) forecasting?

In an economic context, forecasting models are judged in terms not only of accuracy, but also of profitability. The present paper analyses the counterintuitive relationship between accuracy and profitability in probabilistic (sports) forecasts in relation to betting markets. By making use of theoretical considerations, a simulation model, and real-world datasets from three different sports, we demonstrate the possibility of systematically or randomly generating positive betting returns in the absence of a superior model accuracy. The results have methodological implications for sports forecasting and other domains related to betting markets. Betting returns should not be treated as a valid measure of model accuracy, even though they can be regarded as an adequate measure of profitability. Hence, an improved predictive performance might be achieved by carefully considering the roles of both accuracy and profitability when designing models, or, more specifically, when assessing the in-sample fit of data and evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performances.     

Geographies of Algorithmic Violence: Redlining the Smart City

City governments are embracing data-driven and algorithmic planning to tackle urban problems. Data-driven analytics have an unprecedented capacity to call urban futures into being. At the same time, they can depoliticize planning decisions. I argue that this shift calls urban studies scholars to investigate geographies of algorithmic violence—a repetitive and standardized form of violence that contributes to the racialization of space and spatialization of poverty. This article examines this broader phenomenon through the case of a proprietary market value assessment that is being used to guide development in cities across the United States. The assessment employs an algorithm that helps city officials make critical decisions about which neighborhoods to target for investment, disinvestment and public service upgrades or disconnections. I argue that the racial, infrastructural, and epistemological violence associated with this evaluation can potentially lead to a new kind of municipal redlining. The article brings insights from critical race theory into conversation with critical scholarship on algorithms by analyzing how algorithmic violence works through data-driven planning technologies to depoliticize and leverage power while further entrenching racism and inequality.     

Visions and scenarios of democratic governance in Asia 2030

Using the Six Pillars foresight workshop process, forty-five Asian political, policy and activist leaders explored the futures of democratic governance. Organized and funded by Oxfam and the Rockefeller Foundation, the organizing hypothesis was that without a change in the nature of governance in Asia, poverty could not truly be uprooted. Changes in governance needed to be imagined and created from the ground up, not just imposed by the past or the elite. Five visions with accompanying causal layered analysis were developed by participants. Generally, these visions focused on more inclusion not just at the level of voting, but in terms of the participatory creation of alternative futures of culture, technology, economy and polity.     

Interbank tiering and money center banks

This paper provides evidence that interbank markets are tiered rather than flat, in the sense that most banks do not lend to each other directly but through money center banks acting as intermediaries. We capture the concept of tiering by developing a core-periphery model, and devise a procedure for fitting the model to real-world networks. Using Bundesbank data on bilateral interbank exposures among 2000 banks from 1999 to 2012, we find strong evidence of tiering in the German banking system. This extent of tiering is unlikely to arise in standard random networks. Indeed, we show that bank specialization and balance sheet variables predict how banks position themselves in the interbank market. This link provides a promising avenue for understanding the formation of financial networks.     

How managerial attitudes toward the natural environment affect market orientation and innovation

This study investigates natural environmental attitude linkages held by strategic decision makers and hypothesizes that the interaction between market orientation and managerial natural environmental attitudes serves to enhance the effect of market orientation on firm innovativeness. Using questionnaire responses from 284 owners or chief executive officers residing in the food processing industry, the findings establish evidence of (1) a positive linkage between market orientation and firm innovativeness, and (2) the moderating effect of managerial attitudes of top managers toward the natural environmental in the market orientation to firm innovativeness relationship. The results provide insight into the nature of the cultural values on which a market orientation is based in relation to the natural environment.     

Market integration and convergence to the Law of One Price: evidence from the European car market

This paper exploits the unique case of European market integration to investigate the relationship between integration and price convergence in international markets. Using a panel data set of car prices, we examine how the process of integration has affected cross-country price dispersion in Europe. We find surprisingly strong evidence of convergence towards both the absolute and the relative versions of the Law of One Price (LOOP). Our analysis illuminates the main sources of segmentation in international markets and suggests the type of institutional changes that can successfully reduce it.     

The market microstructure of central bank intervention

How quickly do central bank intervention operations impact the foreign exchange market? And, do intra-daily market conditions influence the effectiveness of central bank interventions? This paper uses high-frequency intra-daily data to examine the relationship between the efficacy of intervention operations and the “state of the market” at the moment that the operation is made public. The results indicate that some traders typically know that the Fed is intervening at least 1 h prior to the public release of the information in newswire reports. Also, the evidence suggests that the timing of intervention operations matters—interventions that occur during heavy trading volume, that are closely timed to scheduled macro announcements, and that are coordinated with another central bank are the most likely to have large effects.     

乙醛酸的生产、市场及其衍生物的开发

介绍了国内外乙醛酸的主要合成方法,着重简述了乙醛酸在香料、医药中间体、农药中间体等方面的应用.同时分析了乙醛酸的市场情况,最后对我国乙醛酸的发展提出了一些建议.     

The effects of entrepreneurial orientation, market orientation, and marketing subunit influence on firm performance

The study investigates how an organization’s entrepreneurial orientation moderates the interplay between market orientation and marketing subunit influence on firm performance. The hypothesized model predicts that the positive interaction between market orientation and marketing subunit influence has a weaker effect on firm performance under conditions of high entrepreneurial orientation. The regression and supplementary analyses provide support for most predictions and, most importantly, for a negative three-way interaction effect: At higher levels of entrepreneurial orientation, the positive moderating effect of marketing subunit influence on the market orientation–business performance relationship is reduced. The authors discuss the managerial and theoretical implications of their findings and provide a number of directions for further research.

“两岸共同市场”的特殊构架与机制设计

“两岸共同市场”是基于两岸经贸合作已有的基础、区域一体化中“共同市场”模式的特征和当前海峡政治生态的特殊性相结合而产生的构想或概念性体制方案,它是符合两岸关系发展内在要求的体制构架。实现这一构架的关键在于构建持续、常规化的协调机制,以扩大两岸经贸交流的规模和领域,提升合作层次,实现两岸经济的有效融合和资源的优化配置。